Oscar Predictions.

I used to have my own movie column back in college, and about Oscar time, I'd feature a column on my Oscar predictions. While I haven't done this in a while, and in light of this year's nominees (which are actually worth discussing for a change), here's my Oscar predictions for this year. I entered the Urinal Star contest, so hopefully I can win free movie tickets for a year. Wishful thinking...


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, for CAPOTE.

I don’t think there’s any contest here. Hoffman’s already won the Golden Globe and the Screen Actor’s Guild for his performance as nebbish author Capote, and for good reason. Hoffman’s work in the role of a lifetime is pure craft and sheer brilliance. Not one moment went by in Capote when you didn’t want to see Hoffman work his magic, and when he did, you couldn’t take your eyes off him. For one of Hollywood’s most underrated actor’s of the past decade (see Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Happiness), it’s time to give Hoffman the much due recognition he deserves; he’s a consummate actor.

In this category, Good Night and Good Luck’s Strathairn seems a shoe-in, a tip of the hat if you will. If anyone will give Hoffman something to worry about on Oscar night, it’s Ledger in Brokeback and Phoenix in Line, both great performances. Terrance Howard for Hustle & Flow seems like the shoe-in. But do you really think Hoffman will have ANYTHING to worry about? Let’s hear it for the boy!

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Reese Witherspoon, for WALK THE LINE.

Best Actress this year seems a troublesome category, since there doesn’t seem to be a clear winner, but there are some strong performances throughout. Odds are for Witherspoon, who’s already snagged the Golden Globe and the SAG award for her performance as June Carter Cash in Line. She’d win for the popular vote. Still, I don’t see much wrong with Oscar veering his gilded eyes toward Felicity Huffman who pulled a Victor/Victoria in Transamerica. Yet, STILL, I wouldn’t be surprised if Witherspoon’s face looks especially bright and glowing on the red carpet Oscar night. She may surprise us all with a win.

Judy Dench is an old standard. How can this woman go wrong? In a few years, she’ll get that coveted Lifetime Achievement award, and more time for an acceptance speech. Keira Knightly is young, and has her whole life ahead of her; she simply got a tip of the hat here for Pride and Prejudice. Charlize Theron, reeling from the debacle of Aeon Flux, pulled off at least one good performance this year in North Country. But here it seems like she only earned Oscar’s good graces, and not much else. She’s a fine actress, but her performance here seems overshadowed by her Oscar win for Monster. Does lightening strike twice? Doubtful.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney, for SYRIANA.

There’s several strong, equally deserving performances here, too. Clooney took the Golden Globe for Syriana, Giamatti took the SAG for Cinderella Man, maybe a sympathy pat from his fellow SAG members for missing the Best Supporting Actor Oscar last year. Odds favor either man, and both deserve to win. Both have had long careers, and since his great performance in Sideways last year, Giamatti might seem the frontrunner for the Oscar in this category. Still, Hollywood’s pretty liberal, and might favor the most politically outspoken poster child of the year for his work in a politically outspoken film in a politically outspoken year, Clooney. Still, Cinderella Man fell by the wayside this year. Sure it was a Ron Howard film, meaning it had overly good intentions, just didn’t connect with a broad audience, but Giamatti won’t win the popular vote. If anything, it may be Clooney’s night to shine.

Gyllenhaal, Hurt, and Dillon are all equally strong, and Gyllenhaal, I think, earns the underdog award (which may equal Oscar gold) in this category. Hurt and Dillon get tips of the hat, but not much else. Fate favors Clooney, and why not? He’s probably the strongest leading man in Hollywood history since Gary Cooper.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Catherine Keener, for CAPOTE.

Capote couldn’t work without Lee, and so, Hoffman should not go awarded without a much deserved Oscar for his co-conspirator and on-screen counterpart Keener. Keener herself has a strong history (see Being John Malkovich, The 40 Year Old Virgin), she’s no lightweight. But it’s her work in Capote as Harper Lee that will earn her a night amongst the stars. She gives an Oscar worthy performance, and it would be divine to see both Hoffman and Keener take Oscar to bed in their respective categories for amazing on-screen chemistry and seasoned performances in Capote. I just makes sense.

Odds favor Weisz, who won for both SAG and Golden Globes. McDormand, Adams, and Williams are all strong performances here, too. But in my opinion, they don’t hold a candle up to Keener.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride

This year was the year that stop-motion animation, long considered a dying animated form since the days of Rankin and Bass, made a comeback, and proved that no amount of pixilated drivel (Madagascar, Chicken Little, Hoodwinked) compares to bones to the grindstone, laborious animation. The results are works of fluid art, animating what was at one point inanimate. While Wallace and Gromit wins on the commercial/popular vote side of things, Burton’s vision, style, design, and innovation stood out, and harkened to the overlooked masterpiece that is 1993’s Nightmare Before Christmas. Not only a fine film, but a total emersion into the macabre and strangely beautiful world of Tim Burton’s enigmatic genius.

That’s not to say that Miyazaki’s Howl’s Moving Castle is not without merit. The Disney of the East is a master of ink and paint, but this year belongs to stop-motion animation, and Tim Burton, who deserves much credit for resurrecting the dead in more ways that one.



ART DIRECTION, VISUAL EFFECTS, SOUND EDITING, SOUND MIXING
King Kong

What’s to keep Peter Jackson from collecting his due with this year’s visual and sound effects categories? The truth is Jackson’s Weta digital pioneers are paving new ground in digital technology and special effects, far removed from the Hollwood system, in sunny New Zealand. It started with the Dead Alive, the Frighteners, and the Lord of the Rings Trilogy. Looking at King Kong, you have to ask yourself what kind of precipice Jackson’s reached here. If Kong could articulate from high atop the Empire State Building, he’d probably remark about how fanstastic the view is, and Jackson is at his heights with King Kong. If you look at the whole of Kong’s artistic direction, from the dense jungles of Skull Island, to a recreated New York metropolis of the ‘30s, Kong is not only king of the jungle, but the champion of this visual/sound effects categories. The general effect in Kong is flawless.

Still, there’s Geisha and Good Night and Good Luck to consider in the Art Direction category, which could befall the mighty beast. Kong better be on his best behavior. Still, no doubt in my mind King Kong should make a clean sweep in these categories.

MAKEUP
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith

It’s the throw-away category of the year, and only three films nominated. Might as well give Star Wars some credit besides being a geek-fest.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain

Good films, all, in this category. Spielberg has yet another entry this year, with Munich. Capote was a standout. Crash and Good Night and Good Luck have important things to say. But this year, I think it’s clear Oscar will head west, and make the trek up Brokeback Mountain. This film came out of nowhere, from a director who brought Jane Austen, high-flying martial arts, surly green giants to the screen, and gave us a new kind of love story, a tale of forbidden love in a forsaken environment, in the wide open ranges of Montana. Oscar favors spirited, heartbreaking dramas, and at least Clint f*cking Eastwood and one of his heavy-handed dramatic dickslaps wasn’t nominated this year. Sean Penn makes me want to hurl! F*ck it! Give the Oscar this year to the one film that challenged everything we have come to expect from Hollywood drama/love story, and gave us a different love story that felt achingly sad, beautiful, and new.


BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, for Brokeback Mountain.

Ang Lee’s done it all. He’s a director for every season and color. He’s had both box office flops (The Hulk), international critical and commercial success (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon). The Golden Globes shone in his favor, so it only stands to reason he’d take the Oscar win for Best Director as well. For a man with such varied tastes in film, his vision is always bold and the imprints of his hands are always apparent in molding and shaping each of his films. He may not be one of the great directors, but for pushing the envelope, trying new things, toying with new ideas, and showing us all something we may have never seen before, Ang Lee is the enigmatic mad hatter behind the phenomenon that is Brokeback Mountain; a commendable effort, and an Oscar-worthy one.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
The Squid and the Whale (Noah Baumbach)

Baumbach probably won’t win, but he should. He’s has the most original piece of writing in this category by giving us a stirring, hilarious, and beautiful take on divorce, the intellectual elite embroiled in their own shortcomings, growing pains, and who takes what in an all out domestic battle. His writing is clever, sharp, focused, quick, and involving. Sadly, no one saw Squid and the Whale as much as Syriana and Crash, not even Oscar voters, which could ultimately work against Baumbach. On the other hand, Syriana and Crash are two dramas in the spirit of Traffic composed in the same way. They’re too much alike; multi-character, multi-layered works meditating on race relations and oil, respectively. Voters will probably overlook Match Point, even if it is Woody Allen, as he’s been a traditional no-show come Oscar night. More than likely, the Oscar will wind up in the hands of George Clooney and Grant Heslov for Good Night and Good Luck if it wins for political relevance. It might as well. Still, Squid and the Whale is the odd duck here; an fiercely original screenplay in the midst of dramatically terse dramas and socially biting commentaries; the water boy for the football squad, a nerd in the midst of bullies. It won’t stand up to these heavy hitters, but I’ll be darned if it does. I mean, if Charlie Kaufman can win for Adaptation, maybe Oscar voters will have a soft spot for the kid who always sits in the corner during the homecoming dance. He’s just looking for the right dance partner. After all, Oscar and Baumbach do make a good couple.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Brokeback Mountain (McMurtry/Ossana)

McMurtry is one of the last great living writers of contemporary fiction around, and the Wild West is his territory. So is stirring human drama, and his adaptation of Annie Proulx’s story of a love seemingly lasting but destined for failure in the wide open spaces of Montana between sheepherders is as daring as it is scandalous, beautiful as it is tragic, bold as true love should be. Brokeback already took the Golden Globe for best screenplay, and the odds are in its favor. If the stars align just right, Brokeback Mountain should easily snag the Oscar for this category, even though Capote and The Constant Gardener could prove formidable opponents.

OSCAR RUN TIME (Estimated, of course)
3 Hours, 15 minutes.


In other news, BEEHIVE is the word up in the Loft at the Mill. I've never seen anything like this, in the 10 years I've done theatre. Every show, consistently SOLD OUT. We're talking standing room only. I have to say this is the most pleasurable working experience I've ever had with Bob and company. I've been working the light board, and other misc. jobs during the show, and I've learned alot. It's a good experience. It's a great show, too. Bob found the right mix of talented actresses portraying familiar characters from rock n' roll's past, and what else is there to say...It just works, and it's amazing how many people have connected with this show. Granted the audience is mostly composed of caffiene-swilling giriatrics and ladies from the Red Hat Society (an obvious cover-up for the Communist Party, little old ladies, no less.)

Beehive marks a three-month "run" of sorts with TADA. After this is over, I'll be jumping right into Forbidden Broadway, and after that Sweeney Todd in Concert at Kimball Recital Hall. Plus, Bob's asked me to stage manage Beehive when it returns to the Loft in Sept./Oct. Maybe I'll stick with TADA for the rest of the year if the Playhouse doesn't have anything going for it next season.